Stage I Grade 3 breast cancer

Hi , think that’s the question that never gets answered! Like you I had lumpectomy and rads - click on my name for details - and am taking Anastrozole. The statistics seem mainly to be about survival, eg, there’s the Predict online tool where you can put in your age, size and grade of the lump, and some other information. It gives survival data for 5 and 10 years I think. But it doesn’t ask if you had radiotherapy, I don’t know why. But I’ve never found anything so straightforward about recurrence. And it’s never been discussed with me - when I was prescribed Anastrozole shortly after diagnosis the advice from the oncologist was based on survival statistics rather than recurrence. I think he did say though that the radiotherapy helped prevent local recurrence but didn’t quote any figures. 

Sorry I can’t help! It’s a question which plagues me so I’m glad you’ve asked it. I’m tagging Londonmumof2 (hope you don’t mind LMof2) as she is very good with research and articles. I do remember one from a while back which indicated a significant correlation between fasting for 13 hours overnight and reduction in recurrence for my type of cancer (oestrogen receptive) so I’ve been doing that as it’s not difficult! But I’d like hard facts about the chances of recurrence which just don’t seem to be readily available. 

Hope you get some more informative replies - will watch with interest. Love and hugs, HFxx

The statistics in the predict tool are presuming either mastectomy or lumpectomy with radiotherapy. These figures are based on tamoxifen which is not quite as effective as AI's, so survival would possibly be a little higher with AI's, which the OP didn't mention so I guess it's HER2+ or triple negative? Also these figures are from 5, 10 or 15 years ago sho prognosis would be better now. 

https://breast.predict.nhs.uk/

Thanks for clarifying re the predict tool Londonmumof2. I was also wondering if you had come across statistics re recurrence rather than survival?

I could have a hunt around for stats.... I'd guess about double the rates on Predict but they're all just statistics though.  My oncologist said she's seen women who are  stage 1 grade 1 with clear nodes (but presumably LVI, something not on Predict) come back stage 4, and women with large tumors spread to nodes stay clear 10 years later.  My reckoning is the longer I stay clear the better treatment will be there with a recurrence!

My sister had one almost 20 years after her initial diagnosis of stage 2 to stage 4. She decided against treatment as she felt so ill the first time when she developed an infection which was antibiotic resistant so ended up in isolation at the hospital. She had surgery,  chemo and don't know if she took her tamoxifen first time, but was clear for a very long time. My sister in law had a mastectomy 13 years ago with no chemo or rads and didn't take her tamoxifen but is still clear. My figures on Predict for death in 10 years are 6% with letrozole or 9% without.  Who knows what will happen? I worry it's back all the time, not helped by long covid causing bone, chest and muscle pain.... all possible symptoms of recurrence!